← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Willenborg, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 37% | 34% | 2.65 | fair |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 35% | 39% | 2.75 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Michael Gregoritsch · FC Augsburg |
| 20' | 🟨 | Philipp Max · FC Augsburg |
| 23' | 🟨 | Tobias Strobl · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 68' | ⚽ | Alassane Pléa · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 78' | 🟨 | Fabian Johnson · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 822.00 | 639.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 3.19 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1662.16 | 1725.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.27 | 26.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | 0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.73 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | 1.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.00 | 27.10 |
| state index | 0.33 | 0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |