← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Ittrich, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 39% | 42% | 2.48 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 30% | 31% | 3.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | William · Wolfsburg |
| 28' | 🟨 | Salif Sané · FC Schalke 04 |
| 33' | ⚽ | John Brooks · Wolfsburg |
| 41' | 🟨 | Josuha Guilavogui · Wolfsburg |
| 47' | 🟨 | Weston McKennie · FC Schalke 04 |
| 65' | 🟥 | Matija Nastasić · FC Schalke 04 |
| 68' | 🟨 | Guido Burgstaller · FC Schalke 04 |
| 70' | 🟨 | Wout Weghorst · Wolfsburg |
| 79' | 🟨 | Yannick Gerhardt · Wolfsburg |
| 85' | 🟨 | John Brooks · Wolfsburg |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Nabil Bentaleb · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Daniel Ginczek · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| coach days | 205.00 | 450.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1503.39 | 1691.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.82 | 19.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.67 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.30 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.79 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.30 | -1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 24.91 |
| state index | -0.38 | 1.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | -1.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |