← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Welz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 54% | 44% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 34% | 3.61 | value: +23% |
| Nurnberg win | 19% | 22% | 5.21 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Vedad Ibišević · Hertha |
| 36' | 🟨 | Alexander Fuchs · Nurnberg |
| 56' | 🟨 | Marvin Plattenhardt · Hertha |
| 79' | 🟨 | Dennis Jastrzembski · Hertha |
| 79' | 🟨 | Robert Bauer · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| coach days | 1301.00 | 542.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 4.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1541.22 | 1522.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.19 | 33.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | 0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.66 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | -0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.60 |
| state index | -0.23 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.70 | -0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |