← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 39% | 37% | 2.52 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 32% | 37% | 3.07 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Nicolai Müller · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 49' | 🟨 | Nicolai Müller · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 60' | 🟨 | Carlos Salcedo · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 62' | 🟨 | Jérôme Gondorf · SC Freiburg |
| 82' | ⚽ | Sébastien Haller · Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Schwarzwald-Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 2459.00 | 55.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.31 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1616.95 | 1671.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.17 | -28.84 |
| eye test v1 | 0.00 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 1.14 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 46.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | -0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.98 | 26.57 |
| state index | 0.27 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.76 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |