← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Markus Schmidt, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 36% | 34% | 2.74 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 35% | 38% | 2.78 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ | Benito Raman · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 57' | ⚽ | Martin Hinteregger · FC Augsburg |
| 76' | ⚽ | André Hahn · FC Augsburg |
| 80' | 🟨 | Matthias Zimmermann · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Merkur Spielarena |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 907.00 | 815.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1547.59 | 1653.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.33 | -9.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.74 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.75 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.32 | 26.81 |
| state index | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |