← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Willenborg, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 43% | 40% | 2.27 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 29% | 35% | 3.40 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Guido Burgstaller · FC Schalke 04 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Carlos Salcedo · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 66' | 🟨 | Omar Mascarell · Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 345.00 | 802.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.31 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1800.93 | 1676.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.53 | -24.17 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 46.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.54 |
| league points | 60.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.00 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.32 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.26 | 27.36 |
| state index | 0.95 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.76 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |