← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Brych, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 43% | 44% | 2.29 | fair |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 34% | 31% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.15 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Denis Zakaria · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 11' | ⚽ (pen) | Aaron Hunt · Hamburger SV |
| 28' | ⚽ | Josip Drmić · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 35' | 🟨 | Bobby Wood · Hamburger SV |
| 44' | 🟨 | Douglas Santos · Hamburger SV |
| 63' | ⚽ | Lewis Holtby · Hamburger SV |
| 71' | 🟨 | Bobby Wood · Hamburger SV |
| 71' | 🟥 | Bobby Wood · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days |
| 72.00 |
| 527.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1474.45 | 1605.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.69 | 28.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| league points | 28.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.76 | 1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 22.99 |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |