← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 48% | 51% | 2.05 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | 3.19 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 22% | 23% | 4.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Martin Hinteregger · FC Augsburg |
| 49' | ⚽ | Nicolas Höfler · SC Freiburg |
| 65' | ⚽ | Tim Kleindienst · SC Freiburg |
| 82' | 🟨 | Marco Terrazzino · SC Freiburg |
| 87' | 🟨 | Sergio Córdova · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 5 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| venue | Schwarzwald-Stadion |
| coach days |
| 2354.00 |
| 710.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1482.08 | 1550.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.92 | 1.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 1.31 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.74 |
| league points | 33.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.40 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.63 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |