← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 83% | 78% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 12% | 9.15 | value: +14% |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 7% | 9% | 14.62 | value: +36% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 10 | Corners | 0 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.55 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 218.00 | 131.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.37 |
| elo | 2061.05 | 1695.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.13 | 36.23 |
| eye test v1 | 1.89 | -0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.81 |
| league points | 84.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.60 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.55 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | -7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.59 | -0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.46 | 27.16 |
| state index | 2.28 | 0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.78 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |