← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 51% | 46% | 1.91 | fair |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 25% | 31% | 3.92 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.06 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 3 | Shots | 9 |
| 0 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Weser-Stadion |
| coach days |
| 216.00 |
| 430.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1577.74 | 1635.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.11 | 3.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 51.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.62 |
| league points | 38.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 59.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | 1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 22.46 |
| state index | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | 0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |