← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 47% | 53% | 2.09 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 25% | 23% | 3.84 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 18 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Mönchengladbach | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Borussia-Park |
| coach days |
| 520.00 |
| 2347.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1597.07 | 1490.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.80 | -38.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | -0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.86 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.59 |
| league points | 44.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.06 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 22.99 | — |
| state index | 0.29 | -0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.96 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |