← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sören Storks, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannover win | 36% | 34% | 2.68 | fair |
| Hertha win | 35% | 31% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 36% | 3.39 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Martin Harnik · Hannover |
| 39' | 🟨 | Marvin Plattenhardt · Hertha |
| 40' | ⚽ | Salif Sané · Hannover |
| 42' | ⚽ | Niclas Füllkrug · Hannover |
| 48' | 🟨 | Pirmin Schwegler · Hannover |
| 60' | 🟨 | Karim Rekik · Hertha |
| 73' | ⚽ | Davie Selke · Hertha |
| 88' | 🟨 | Pálko Dárdai · Hertha |
| 89' | 🟨 | Marvin Bakalorz · Hannover |
| 89' | 🟨 | Rune Jarstein · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hannover | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.56 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | HDI Arena |
| coach days |
| 430.00 |
| 1189.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1514.97 | 1575.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.64 | 14.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| league points | 36.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.34 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.99 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.54 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.76 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |