← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bibiana Steinhaus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 74% | 75% | 1.31 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 12% | 6.13 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 10% | 13% | 9.48 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Simon Zoller · 1. FC Köln |
| 30' | ⚽ (og) | Niklas Süle · 1. FC Köln |
| 59' | ⚽ | James Rodríguez · FC Bayern München |
| 61' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Bayern München |
| 78' | ⚽ | Corentin Tolisso · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.56 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.56 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 1799.00 | 211.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1593.36 | 2058.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.23 | 22.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | 1.89 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 4.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 2.01 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| league points | 22.00 | 81.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 89.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 66.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 2.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.59 | 2.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 8.20 |
| squad age | 26.34 | 24.92 |
| state index | -0.59 | 2.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | 1.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |