← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kampka, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 39% | 42% | 2.51 | value: +6% |
| FC Augsburg win | 31% | 26% | 3.11 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.28 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Thilo Kehrer · FC Schalke 04 |
| 27' | 🟨 | Guido Burgstaller · FC Schalke 04 |
| 27' | ⚽ | Philipp Max · FC Augsburg |
| 34' | ⚽ | Thilo Kehrer · FC Schalke 04 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alessandro Schöpf · FC Schalke 04 |
| 59' | 🟨 | Thilo Kehrer · FC Schalke 04 |
| 77' | 🟨 | Philipp Max · FC Augsburg |
| 88' | 🟨 | Alfreð Finnbogason · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days |
| 703.00 |
| 338.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1559.08 | 1678.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.41 | -1.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.88 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| league points | 41.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.80 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.33 | -0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 24.91 |
| state index | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.97 | -1.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |