← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 46% | 48% | 2.11 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 28% | 27% | 3.51 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ (pen) | Pablo De Blasis · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 30' | 🟨 | Yussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig |
| 38' | 🟨 | Stefan Bell · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 40' | 🟨 | Willi Orbán · RB Leipzig |
| 85' | ⚽ | Alexandru Maxim · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 89' | 🟨 | Alexandru Maxim · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 89' | 🟨 | Naby Keïta · RB Leipzig |
| 90' | 🟨 | Naby Keïta · RB Leipzig |
| 90' | 🟥 | Naby Keïta · RB Leipzig |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ridle Baku · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 24 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| venue | Opel Arena |
| coach days |
| 363.00 |
| 667.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1494.37 | 1630.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.11 | -46.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | 0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 48.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.55 |
| league points | 30.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 23.03 |
| state index | -0.25 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |