← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 42% | 39% | 2.35 | fair |
| Hamburger SV win | 30% | 38% | 3.24 | value: +23% |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | Bobby Wood · Hamburger SV |
| 44' | 🟨 | Paul Verhaegh · Wolfsburg |
| 45' | ⚽ | Lewis Holtby · Hamburger SV |
| 51' | 🟨 | Robin Knoche · Wolfsburg |
| 67' | 🟨 | Julian Pollersbeck · Hamburger SV |
| 78' | ⚽ | Josip Brekalo · Wolfsburg |
| 84' | 🟨 | Josip Brekalo · Wolfsburg |
| 88' | 🟨 | Kyriakos Papadopoulos · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | ⚽ | Luca Waldschmidt · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| coach days |
| 86.00 |
| 58.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 3.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1518.72 | 1466.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.05 | 13.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 52.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.68 |
| league points | 30.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | 0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |