← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 52% | 52% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.85 | fair |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 23% | 23% | 4.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| 0.60 |
| coach days | 331.00 | 513.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1796.46 | 1711.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.65 | 14.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.69 |
| league points | 56.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.36 | 26.90 |
| state index | 1.04 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.74 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |