← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Welz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 67% | 64% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 21% | 5.07 | value: +6% |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 13% | 15% | 7.28 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Julian Baumgartlinger · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 67' | ⚽ | Christian Gentner · VfB Stuttgart |
| 86' | 🟨 | Kevin Volland · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 4 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | BayArena |
| coach days |
| 423.00 |
| 117.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.82 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1649.12 | 1565.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.19 | 9.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.10 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.76 |
| league points | 51.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.95 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 22.46 | 22.01 |
| state index | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |