← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Fritz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 47% | 44% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.54 | value: +11% |
| FC Augsburg win | 26% | 24% | 3.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Michael Gregoritsch · FC Augsburg |
| 61' | ⚽ | Sergio Córdova · FC Augsburg |
| 77' | 🟨 | Sergio Córdova · FC Augsburg |
| 78' | 🟨 | Caiuby · FC Augsburg |
| 84' | ⚽ (pen) | Vedad Ibišević · Hertha |
| 87' | ⚽ | Davie Selke · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟥 | Marcel Heller · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.56 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| coach days |
| 1182.00 |
| 696.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1577.31 | 1556.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.01 | -5.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.75 |
| league points | 42.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 38.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | -1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.43 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |