← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Deniz Aytekin, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 46% | 46% | 2.13 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.56 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 27% | 27% | 3.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marco Terrazzino · SC Freiburg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marco Höger · 1. FC Köln |
| 45' | 🟨 | Yuya Osako · 1. FC Köln |
| 52' | ⚽ | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
| 65' | 🟨 | Jorge Meré · 1. FC Köln |
| 82' | ⚽ | Leonardo Bittencourt · 1. FC Köln |
| 87' | ⚽ | Leonardo Bittencourt · 1. FC Köln |
| 88' | 🟨 | Robin Koch · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vincent Koziello · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lucas Höler · SC Freiburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Schwarzwald-Stadion |
| coach days |
| 2340.00 |
| 1792.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1481.92 | 1488.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -58.22 | 3.60 |
| eye test v1 | -1.36 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| league points | 30.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 1.90 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | -1.19 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |