← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christian Dingert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 47% | 59% | 2.09 | value: +24% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.53 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 26% | 14% | 3.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ | Niklas Dorsch · FC Bayern München |
| 76' | ⚽ | Sandro Wagner · FC Bayern München |
| 78' | ⚽ | Sébastien Haller · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 87' | ⚽ | Rafinha · FC Bayern München |
| 90' | ⚽ | Niklas Süle · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.57 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| coach days |
| 204.00 |
| 788.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.28 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1935.05 | 1549.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.06 | -30.05 |
| eye test v1 | 1.50 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.51 |
| league points | 78.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.40 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.52 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.41 | 0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.14 | — |
| state index | 1.88 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.68 | 0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |