← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Fritz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 45% | 37% | 2.16 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.44 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 27% | 37% | 3.67 | value: +36% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Breel Embolo · FC Schalke 04 |
| 23' | ⚽ | Yevhen Konoplyanka · FC Schalke 04 |
| 26' | ⚽ | Leonardo Bittencourt · 1. FC Köln |
| 83' | ⚽ | Marcel Risse · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 21 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 22 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| coach days |
| 1786.00 |
| 325.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 1.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1484.48 | 1686.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.87 | 21.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.81 |
| league points | 21.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | -0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 24.25 |
| state index | -0.63 | 0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |