← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Willenborg, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 41% | 42% | 2.36 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.31 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 29% | 29% | 3.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Philipp Max · FC Augsburg |
| 29' | ⚽ | Michael Gregoritsch · FC Augsburg |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Gouweleeuw · FC Augsburg |
| 68' | 🟨 | Alexandru Maxim · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 76' | 🟨 | Caiuby · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alfreð Finnbogason · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alfreð Finnbogason · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days |
| 690.00 |
| 356.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1546.05 | 1505.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.74 | -2.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.51 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| league points | 37.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.35 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.36 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.16 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |