← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sören Storks, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 39% | 39% | 2.50 | fair |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 32% | 25% | 3.02 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 36% | 3.40 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Florian Kainz · SV Werder Bremen |
| 13' | ⚽ | Christian Gentner · VfB Stuttgart |
| 39' | 🟨 | Philipp Bargfrede · SV Werder Bremen |
| 54' | 🟨 | Daniel Ginczek · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' | ⚽ | Berkay Özcan · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Mercedes-Benz Arena |
| coach days |
| 110.00 |
| 202.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1551.92 | 1589.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.04 | 24.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | 0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.76 |
| league points | 39.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 22.01 | — |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |