← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Petersen, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 68% | 71% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 19% | 5.20 | fair |
| Hannover win | 13% | 11% | 7.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 57' | ⚽ | Thomas Müller · FC Bayern München |
| 73' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Bayern München |
| 85' | 🟨 | Oliver Sorg · Hannover |
| 89' | ⚽ | Sebastian Rudy · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hannover | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.82 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | HDI Arena |
| coach days |
| 416.00 |
| 197.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.28 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 1.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1526.45 | 1930.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.36 | 2.70 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | 1.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 3.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 4.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 2.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| league points | 36.00 | 75.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 88.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 67.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | 2.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.14 |
| state index | -0.33 | 1.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | 1.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |