← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Cortus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 47% | 54% | 2.07 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.49 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 25% | 22% | 3.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Çağlar Söyüncü · SC Freiburg |
| 43' | 🟨 | Matti Steinmann · Hamburger SV |
| 54' | ⚽ | Lewis Holtby · Hamburger SV |
| 58' | 🟨 | Lukas Kübler · SC Freiburg |
| 71' | 🟨 | Çağlar Söyüncü · SC Freiburg |
| 71' | 🟥 | Çağlar Söyüncü · SC Freiburg |
| 82' | 🟨 | Albin Ekdal · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gideon Jung · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.03 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.07 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days |
| 51.00 |
| 2333.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.47 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1457.18 | 1491.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.47 | -46.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | -1.87 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.70 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.00 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| league points | 22.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 1.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 0.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 0.60 |
| state index | -0.66 | -1.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |