← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 50% | 52% | 1.97 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.52 | fair |
| Hertha win | 23% | 22% | 4.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 57' | ⚽ (pen) | Davie Selke · Hertha |
| 75' | 🟨 | Omar Mascarell · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 77' | ⚽ | Mathew Leckie · Hertha |
| 79' | 🟥 | Makoto Hasebe · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 81' | 🟨 | Davie Selke · Hertha |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alexander Esswein · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 4 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Commerzbank-Arena |
| coach days |
| 781.00 |
| 1175.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1570.29 | 1556.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.90 | 2.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.78 |
| league points | 46.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.89 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.02 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | -0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |