← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Mon, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Guido Winkmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 45% | 47% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.27 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 25% | 23% | 3.94 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Janik Haberer · SC Freiburg |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Pablo De Blasis · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 56' | 🟨 | Manuel Gulde · SC Freiburg |
| 75' | 🟨 | Leon Balogun · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 78' | ⚽ | Pablo De Blasis · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 0 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.11 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.11 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Opel Arena |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 350.00 | 2328.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1609.07 | 1624.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.37 | -40.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -1.84 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| league points | 27.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.82 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.80 |
| squad age | 26.74 | 24.68 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.62 | 0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |