← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 40% | 36% | 2.41 | fair |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 31% | 39% | 3.14 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 50' | ⚽ | Yevhen Konoplyanka · FC Schalke 04 |
| 61' | 🟨 | Łukasz Piszczek · Borussia Dortmund |
| 78' | 🟨 | Guido Burgstaller · FC Schalke 04 |
| 82' | ⚽ | Naldo · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 318.00 | 135.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1785.77 | 1836.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.90 | 4.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.70 |
| league points | 52.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 1.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.51 | 26.81 |
| state index | 0.93 | 0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |