← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 64% | 66% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | 4.80 | fair |
| Hamburger SV win | 16% | 15% | 6.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Serge Gnabry · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 27' | ⚽ | Ádám Szalai · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 51' | 🟨 | Douglas Santos · Hamburger SV |
| 64' | 🟨 | Nadiem Amiri · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 85' | 🟨 | Gideon Jung · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | WIRSOL Rhein-Neckar-Arena |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 803.00 | 44.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1744.82 | 1581.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.18 | 7.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.90 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.65 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| league points | 43.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 0.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.60 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.64 | 24.58 |
| state index | 1.45 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.33 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |