← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kampka, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 72% | 71% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 19% | 5.63 | value: +5% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 11% | 11% | 9.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 4 |
| 11 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.84 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| coach days |
| 190.00 |
| 499.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1927.46 | 1584.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.48 | -6.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.87 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| league points | 72.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.48 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.08 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 24.89 | 22.99 |
| state index | 2.07 | 0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.40 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |