← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Fri, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Ittrich, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 43% | 44% | 2.26 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.26 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 27% | 25% | 3.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Michael Gregoritsch · FC Augsburg |
| 42' | 🟨 | Felix Uduokhai · Wolfsburg |
| 52' | 🟨 | Jan Morávek · FC Augsburg |
| 54' | 🟨 | Jan Morávek · FC Augsburg |
| 54' | 🟥 | Jan Morávek · FC Augsburg |
| 82' | 🟨 | Ja-Cheol Koo · FC Augsburg |
| 86' | 🟨 | Felix Uduokhai · Wolfsburg |
| 86' | 🟥 | Felix Uduokhai · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| coach days | 71.00 | 681.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1650.46 | 1663.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.88 | -17.89 |
| eye test v1 | -1.16 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.40 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| league points | 29.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | -1.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.08 | 27.01 |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |