← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bibiana Steinhaus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 55% | 56% | 1.77 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.86 | fair |
| Hertha win | 20% | 21% | 4.98 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | ⚽ | Salomon Kalou · Hertha |
| 74' | 🟨 | Davie Selke · Hertha |
| 75' | ⚽ | Thorgan Hazard · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 79' | ⚽ (pen) | Thorgan Hazard · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 88' | 🟨 | Fabian Lustenberger · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lars Stindl · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Borussia-Park |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 492.00 | 1161.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1694.62 | 1667.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.63 | 7.59 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.83 |
| league points | 37.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.39 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.75 | 26.58 |
| state index | 0.17 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |