← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Cortus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 47% | 41% | 2.07 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 27% | 33% | 3.67 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Jonas Hector · 1. FC Köln |
| 25' | 🟨 | Lukas Klünter · 1. FC Köln |
| 44' | 🟨 | Leon Balogun · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 50' | ⚽ | Pablo De Blasis · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 59' | 🟨 | Vincent Koziello · 1. FC Köln |
| 66' | 🟨 | Suat Serdar · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 70' | 🟨 | Danny Latza · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 80' | 🟨 | Christian Clemens · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Salih Özcan · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Giulio Donati · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Giulio Donati · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | 🟥 | Giulio Donati · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.39 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| coach days |
| 1771.00 |
| 341.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1492.99 | 1490.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.85 | -18.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.63 |
| league points | 20.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | -0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.44 | -0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.89 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |