← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Markus Schmidt, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 65% | 67% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.34 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 13% | 11% | 7.66 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ (og) | Niklas Süle · FC Augsburg |
| 20' | 🟨 | Michael Gregoritsch · FC Augsburg |
| 20' | 🟨 | Jérôme Boateng · FC Bayern München |
| 32' | ⚽ | Corentin Tolisso · FC Bayern München |
| 38' | ⚽ | James Rodríguez · FC Bayern München |
| 43' | 🟨 | Rani Khedira · FC Augsburg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Daniel Baier · FC Augsburg |
| 62' | ⚽ | Arjen Robben · FC Bayern München |
| 87' | ⚽ | Sandro Wagner · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 7 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 19 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 675.00 | 183.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1667.95 | 2043.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.01 | -9.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 3.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 2.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.73 |
| league points | 36.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 66.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 2.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.88 | 2.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.05 | 28.75 |
| state index | 0.14 | 2.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.95 | 1.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |