← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Fri, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Welz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 43% | 39% | 2.26 | fair |
| Hannover win | 31% | 30% | 3.16 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.76 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Martin Harnik · Hannover |
| 42' | ⚽ | Felix Klaus · Hannover |
| 61' | 🟨 | Niclas Füllkrug · Hannover |
| 74' | ⚽ | Ishak Belfodil · SV Werder Bremen |
| 76' | 🟨 | Sebastian Langkamp · SV Werder Bremen |
| 88' | 🟨 | Zlatko Junuzović · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hannover | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | HDI Arena |
| coach days |
| 401.00 |
| 187.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1513.12 | 1600.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -47.40 | 43.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | 0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.73 |
| league points | 32.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| state index | -0.87 | 0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |