← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 41% | 40% | 2.37 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 31% | 26% | 3.15 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 34% | 3.51 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Zlatko Junuzović · SV Werder Bremen |
| 35' | 🟨 | Niklas Moisander · SV Werder Bremen |
| 53' | ⚽ | Luka Jović · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 73' | 🟨 | Max Kruse · SV Werder Bremen |
| 79' | ⚽ (og) | David Abraham · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Weser-Stadion |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 182.00 | 761.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1710.74 | 1709.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.39 | 13.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.77 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.61 |
| league points | 33.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.54 | 27.05 |
| state index | 1.07 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.00 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |