← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 41% | 40% | 2.37 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 32% | 35% | 3.07 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 90' | 🟨 | Christoph Kramer · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| coach days | 335.00 | 486.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| venue | Opel Arena |
| -2.40 |
| 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1489.62 | 1577.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.07 | -9.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | 0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 25.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.43 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| squad age | — | 22.99 |
| state index | -0.23 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.21 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |