← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Brych, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 58% | 54% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.94 | fair |
| Hamburger SV win | 18% | 21% | 5.50 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Lewis Holtby · Hamburger SV |
| 44' | ⚽ | Daniel Ginczek · VfB Stuttgart |
| 55' | 🟨 | Dennis Aogo · VfB Stuttgart |
| 57' | 🟨 | Gideon Jung · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Mercedes-Benz Arena |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 89.00 | 30.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 3.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1663.48 | 1562.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 48.94 | -23.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | -1.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.71 |
| league points | 37.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.19 | -0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.99 | 23.96 |
| state index | 1.09 | -1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.09 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |