← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Stieler, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 62% | 69% | 1.58 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 26% | 18% | 3.79 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 13% | 13% | 7.74 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 63' | ⚽ (pen) | Daniel Caligiuri · FC Schalke 04 |
| 64' | 🟨 | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
| 65' | 🟨 | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
| 65' | 🟥 | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
| 73' | ⚽ | Guido Burgstaller · FC Schalke 04 |
| 83' | 🟨 | Leon Goretzka · FC Schalke 04 |
| 84' | 🟨 | Benjamin Stambouli · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 0 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 19 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| coach days |
| 303.00 |
| 2312.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1679.47 | 1528.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 45.80 | -1.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | -1.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | -0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.68 |
| league points | 49.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 6.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 23.68 | — |
| state index | 1.02 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |