← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Willenborg, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 66% | 62% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.53 | value: +6% |
| FC Augsburg win | 13% | 14% | 7.59 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | 🟨 | Jan Morávek · FC Augsburg |
| 48' | 🟨 | Philipp Max · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 4 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| coach days | 395.00 | 668.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| venue | BayArena |
| 0.00 |
| 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.77 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1631.85 | 1545.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.28 | -22.77 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| league points | 44.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | -0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 22.46 | — |
| state index | 0.29 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |