← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 72% | 75% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 16% | 5.60 | fair |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 11% | 10% | 8.84 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 5 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 4 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| coach days |
| 176.00 |
| 120.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1914.48 | 1721.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.41 | -8.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.45 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.79 |
| league points | 66.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.44 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.20 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.36 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.89 | 24.71 |
| state index | 1.70 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.57 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |