← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 57% | 60% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.25 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 20% | 19% | 4.94 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Marco Höger · 1. FC Köln |
| 9' | ⚽ | Yuya Osako · 1. FC Köln |
| 33' | 🟥 | Lucas Alario · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 35' | 🟨 | Dominique Heintz · 1. FC Köln |
| 41' | 🟨 | Wendell · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 61' | 🟨 | Leonardo Bittencourt · 1. FC Köln |
| 69' | ⚽ | Simon Zoller · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| coach days |
| 1751.00 |
| 382.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 3.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1484.75 | 1651.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.80 | -13.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | 0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.65 |
| league points | 17.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | — | 22.60 |
| state index | -0.60 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |