← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Cortus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 47% | 44% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.36 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 24% | 31% | 4.00 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 84' | 🟨 | Pablo Insua · FC Schalke 04 |
| 86' | ⚽ (og) | Robin Knoche · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| coach days | 44.00 | 289.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| -1.40 |
| -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1518.66 | 1672.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.88 | 36.08 |
| eye test v1 | -1.03 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.50 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.74 |
| league points | 25.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 23.68 |
| state index | -0.98 | 0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.78 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |