← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Petersen, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 44% | 40% | 2.22 | fair |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 30% | 33% | 3.21 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Mönchengladbach | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Borussia-Park |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 471.00 | 775.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1696.13 | 1732.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.35 | 26.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 52.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.56 |
| league points | 35.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.34 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.81 | 25.61 |
| state index | 0.16 | 1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |