← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kampka, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 35% | 32% | 2.77 | fair |
| Hamburger SV win | 34% | 34% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 34% | 3.13 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Douglas Santos · Hamburger SV |
| 33' | 🟨 | Valentino Lazaro · Hertha |
| 41' | 🟨 | Rick Van Drongelen · Hamburger SV |
| 48' | 🟨 | Thomas Kraft · Hertha |
| 56' | ⚽ | Valentino Lazaro · Hertha |
| 63' | ⚽ | Salomon Kalou · Hertha |
| 68' | 🟨 | Marvin Plattenhardt · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days |
| 16.00 |
| 1140.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1452.83 | 1551.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.13 | 1.82 |
| eye test v1 | -1.32 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.80 |
| league points | 18.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.17 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| state index | -1.35 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |