← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Fri, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Brand, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 38% | 41% | 2.55 | value: +4% |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 31% | 31% | 3.15 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Mario Gómez · VfB Stuttgart |
| 10' | 🟨 | Andreas Beck · VfB Stuttgart |
| 53' | ⚽ | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
| 75' | 🟨 | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
| 75' | ⚽ | Mario Gómez · VfB Stuttgart |
| 76' | 🟨 | Janik Haberer · SC Freiburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Schwarzwald-Stadion |
| coach days |
| 2297.00 |
| 74.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1540.14 | 1556.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.70 | 45.22 |
| eye test v1 | -1.21 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.80 |
| league points | 30.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 39.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.40 | -1.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 22.01 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | -1.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |