← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Mon, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Brand, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 53% | 57% | 1.85 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.92 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 22% | 20% | 4.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Miloš Veljković · SV Werder Bremen |
| 44' | 🟨 | Frederik Sørensen · 1. FC Köln |
| 53' | ⚽ | Yuya Osako · 1. FC Köln |
| 58' | ⚽ | Milot Rashica · SV Werder Bremen |
| 60' | 🟨 | Dominique Heintz · 1. FC Köln |
| 79' | 🟨 | Salih Özcan · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | ⚽ | Maximilian Eggestein · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Weser-Stadion |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 162.00 | 1745.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1684.34 | 1607.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.79 | -10.76 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| league points | 27.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 0.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | -0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.82 | 26.83 |
| state index | 0.83 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |