← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Stieler, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 41% | 35% | 2.39 | fair |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 30% | 36% | 3.21 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 52' | 🟨 | Lukas Klostermann · RB Leipzig |
| 70' | 🟨 | Bernardo · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| coach days | 69.00 | 618.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| venue | Mercedes-Benz Arena |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1649.89 | 1766.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 50.63 | -29.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.53 | -0.71 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 65.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.66 |
| league points | 33.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.37 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.39 | 23.49 |
| state index | 0.92 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.30 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |