← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 57% | 59% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.01 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 19% | 19% | 5.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Nico Schulz · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 68' | 🟨 | Eugen Polański · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 77' | ⚽ | Serge Gnabry · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 80' | ⚽ (og) | Josuha Guilavogui · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Bruma · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | WIRSOL Rhein-Neckar-Arena |
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 768.00 | 37.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1721.20 | 1648.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.35 | -26.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 68.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| league points | 35.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.20 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.74 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.04 | 25.90 |
| state index | 0.90 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |